The best players from Tier 2 nations not at RWC 2019

A look at some of the top players who could have represented Tier 2 nations at RWC 2019 but for a variety of different reasons were not named in the final 31 man squads.

1. Zurab Zhvania (Georgia)

Reason? Seemed a likely selection as a second/third choice loosehead who could also cover as third choice hooker, but had a fall out with coach Milton Haig who uncharacteristically visibly annoyed at a press conference stated "he just wasn't fit enough" and being in a position of such huge depth in Georgia meant he was deemed dispensable.

Another chance? A late injury withdrawal in 2015, now out for 2019, Zhvania risks being remembered as one of the best players never to play in a RWC. Only 27 so certainly not too old, but Georgia are producing so many prospects at prop it will be tough to make it in 2023.

Other notable absentees:
Loni Uhila (Tonga) a 30 year old uncapped player reported to be a target for Tonga having left Super Rugby but appears to have chosen to remain at his club instead.
Karlen Asieshvili (Georgia) an unlucky late cut who would walk into any other Tier 2 side but missed out following an injury limited season and the rapid rise of Guram Gogichashvili.
Alex Hodgman (Fiji) could have been a possible starter for Fiji at this RWC but neither he or another loosehead target George Bower were available due to NZ Super Rugby contract restrictions.

2. Elia Elia (Samoa)

Reason? A young player (who would have been the youngest in Samoa's squad in fact) set for his first RWC, he picked up a hamstring injury in the PNC which ruled him out the tournament.

Another chance? With just two caps over the past two years (neither of them starts), his senior international career cannot be said to have taken off yet as may have been hoped, but still has plenty of time left in his career and could reach at least two more RWCs.

Other notable absentees:
Samisoni Taukei'aho (Tonga) a homegrown Tongan player but again was unavailable (even as the Ikale Tahi had a reported crisis at hooker) in order to keep New Zealand eligibility in Super Rugby.
Badri Alkhazashvili (Georgia) a former U20 captain who led them to the promotion in 2015 and was one Georgia's best young prospects but his senior career hampered by persistent injuries.

3. Lasha Tabidze (Georgia)

Reason? Another former U20 captain long regarded as one of Georgia's best prospects, but in a competitive position Beqa Gigashvili came from nowhere last year to become a certain selection who could cover all of the front row, and his former U20 teammate Giorgi Melikidze got the nod over him for the third tighthead spot.

Another chance? The competition on both sides of the scrum in Georgia is fierce, and all the 2019 squad tightheads should still be around in 2023, plus new prospects like Kharaishvili. So it will not be easy, but Tabidze will be closer to his peak in four years and still has plenty of time to make a RWC.

Other notable absentees:
Mario Sagario (Uruguay) the veteran first choice tighthead for Los Teros retired in May due to off field business commitments which was a big loss for the Uruguayans.
Davit Kubriashvili (Georgia) an old fashioned scrummaging specialist tighthead he missed out to younger, more mobile options and announced his retirement after missing the squad.
Dave Ryan (USA) has no longer been on eligibility dependant contracts for four years now but still never been recalled to a USA squad despite having a lot more experience at a top level than Paul Mullen.

4. Grant Hattingh (Japan)

Reason? Qualified on residency and would have been sure starter Japan at this RWC adding significant height to the second row as their first ever 2 metre plus tall player. However a groin injury suffered in May and a faltering rehabilitation process ruled him out.

Another chance? At 28 Hattingh can certainly still make another RWC, from his quotes it seems he has the desire to do so, and could be a very valuable addition in a weak position for Japan in the 4 year cycle after this tournament.

Other notable absentees:
Samu Manoa (USA) had a very unhappy injury hit time in Cardiff which saw him depart early, returned 6 months later in MLR clearly lacking match fitness, and soon retired from international rugby.
Anton Bresler (Namibia) no longer a Scottish project player since joining Worcester, but still not representing country of his birth who he could have played for at three RWCs at this point.
Brian Alainu'uese (Samoa) the colossal 2.02m 135kg lock still has never got a call up at senior international level but is currently out with a back injury in any case.

5. Rodrigo Capó Ortega (Uruguay)

Reason? He has been an incredibly durable player but 2018/19 turned out to be the most injury hit of his near 400 match 17 season pro career and he was ruled out for 9 months with surgery on a herniated disc last December. He might have possibly made it just back in time for the RWC, but unable to take part in Uruguay's preparation he decided to withdraw.

Another chance? At 38 this was planned to be the farewell in Uruguayan colours for Capó, who will finish his career as a Uruguay great but also one with a mixed relationship with the national team.

Other notable absentees:
Joe Tekori (Samoa) a veteran coming off a successful season with Toulouse, but since the last RWC played sparingly at international level and retired from international rugby before the tournament.
Michael Fatialofa (Samoa) no longer in New Zealand, but like his second row colleague Bresler, has still seemingly not become available since joining Worcester.
Sergei Sergueev (Russia) one of Russia's only three professional players in Western Europe he quite simply has never wanted an international career with all his 5 only caps coming back in 2010.

6. Jordan Taufua (Samoa)

Reason? A player who has been on cusp of the All Blacks but who remains uncapped, it seemed when that cap didn't come and a move to Leicester was announced it might open up his availability for Samoa, unfortunately for them though this was not the case.

Another chance? It still is possible Taufua could have a good 5-6 year career for Samoa if he wants, although if he does want that then it's not clear why he would not start by appearing at this RWC.

Other notable absentees:
Renaldo Bothma (Namibia) retired from international rugby on the eve of the final squad being announced, but coach Phil Davies revealed he was simply dropped, with rumours of some falling out.

7. Giorgi Tsutskiridze (Georgia)

Reason? A revelation of these past 12 months for Georgia, but unfortunately suffered a broken ankle in the first few minutes of the first warm up match vs Southern Kings and now is out long term. Even with Gorgodze rejoining the team, this is still a big blow for Georgia and it is very disappointing not to see Tsutskiridze make his mark as part of the 2016 U20 back row trio on the world stage at this RWC.

Another chance? At only 22 he can certainly come again more than once. This is another position Georgia has quite a few young players coming through, so there will be competition, but if he recovers from injury with his pace intact Tsutskiridze adds an extra dimension to some of the others.

Other notable absentees:
Vito Kolelishvili (Georgia) a mainstay of the Lelos who would have reached a third RWC but after suffering repeated heavy concussions not played since October and now taken a sabbatical to recover.
Colby Fainga'a (Tonga) players' player of the season in his first year at Connacht and with 100 Super Rugby caps may have been a good addition for Tonga but possibly now a "project player" in Ireland.

8. Rahboni Warren-Vosayaco (Japan)

Reason? One of the most dynamic players for the Sunwolves this year, he looked like he could have added to an already impressive list of back rowers for Japan. He was named in the RWC training squad, but then it turned out he fell just short of residency qualifying criteria.

Another chance? If he stays in Japan he could certainly become an international and will be close to his prime in 2023. However there is significant back row competition with other young players like Shota Fukui, Tevita Tatafu, Ben Gunter and the current squad members in contention. Also eligible for Fiji if both parties were interested.

Other notable absentees:
Tevita Tatafu (Japan) starred for Junior Japan with some big performances in the Pacific Challenge, but Jamie Joseph was not considering University players so simply never got a chance ahead of his RWC.
So'oatala Fa'aso'o (Samoa) had a big season for Brive helping them to promotion to the Top 14 but still was ignored by the selectors and yet to make his senior international debut.
Sione Vailanu (Tonga) was overlooked despite a big ball carrying performance in the final game of the PNC against Canada.
Anton Rudoy (Russia) one of the top players for the Bears this RWC cycle and scored a hat trick in a big win vs Canada in his last test in June 2018 but then suddenly disappeared from the international scene.

9. Folau Fakatava (Tonga)

Reason? A homegrown Tongan prospect, who even represented them in touch rugby as a 15 year old at the 2015 Pacific Games, however he is not available for his home country at least not at this stage of his career so not to lose eligibility for New Zealand. Unfortunately his absence didn't come as any surprise whatsoever.

Another chance? He is just 19 so will certainly get another chance, with the All Blacks obviously getting the first pick, and possibly Tonga if he falls short of that and moves to a pro club Europe.

Other notable absentees:
Will Percillier (Canada) scored some brilliant tries at U20 who made his debut in the ARC earlier this year but somewhat surprisingly never got an opportunity in the PNC.

10. Takuya Yamasawa (Japan)

Reason? A hugely exciting playmaking fly half, well suited to Japan's style of play, who is a star in the Top League offering a lot more threat with ball in hand than Yu Tamura. He was noted by Eddie Jones on departure as the young player who could breakthrough for RWC 2019, however strangely simply never been given a chance by Jamie Joseph who has cited his lack of experience as a reason (although this hasn't stopped him selecting a pair of converted 8s as props despite only playing in the position for a couple of years).

Another chance? Certainly at just 24 he can come again for two more RWCs and still the most likely eventual successor for Tamura. However it feels a wasted past year where he could have gained some experience with the Sunwolves and as part of Japan squads even if not ready to be first choice at a RWC.

Other notable absentees:
Peceli Nacebe (Fiji) was emerging on the selection radar, but had an ill fated year in France where he was moved to wing, whilst Alivereti Veitokani took his Fijian Drua place and thrived to surpass him.

11. Nemani Nadolo (Fiji)

Reason? Announced his international retirement following an injury disrupted season saying he was feeling the wear and tear on his body. He is currently out injured again after requiring knee surgery.

Another chance? This would have been a last RWC for Nadolo, it's a shame as last time his only RWC had the regret of missing a key match whilst on great form as WR at the time went super strict on "neck rolls". Although Fiji have depth to cope with absences at wing more than any other position losing a player with such a strong strike rate is still a blow.

Other notable absentees:
Hosea Saumaki (Tonga) no secret of interest from Japan, but he is not eligible due to 7s caps, and doesn't seem to be going through Olympics loophole, but still not featured in the Tongan squad.
Monty Ioane (Samoa) players' player of the season nominee in the Pro14 for his form with Benetton but not called up by either Samoa or Fiji (who he is both eligible for) and a possible project player for Italy.
Tevita Li (Tonga) the record try scorer in the U20 Championship for New Zealand, but at senior level never entered All Black plans, but still not available for Tonga even though he has now moved to Japan.

12. Michael Little (Fiji)

Reason? Had an impressive first season of Super Rugby in 2018 with the Sunwolves, which apparently led to some discussions with John McKee, however his 2019 season got cut short to just 5 games due to concussion leaving him with no opportunity to make the squad.

Another chance? He could possibly have one more opportunity to play a RWC in 2023, but there is plenty of competition from both current players and upcoming youngsters like Vilimoni Botitu, and might be helped if he were to move to a club in Europe where most of the Fijian squad is based, or at least a better Japanese club.

Other notable absentees:
Harumichi Tatekawa (Japan) one of the best players of the Eddie Jones era he was a leader for Japan in the first couple years under Jamie Joseph but got axed in 2018.
Willis Halaholo (Tonga) a former Tonga U20 but now waiting as a "project player" to be eligible for Wales who he qualifies for on residency soon after the RWC.

13. Yusuke Kajimura (Japan)

Reason? Another prospect in Japan who had his early career delayed by University rugby. He finally got into the Top League and had an excellent first season where displaced current Japan incumbent Ryoto Nakamura as first choice at Suntory Sungoliath, but a lack of versatility and experience likely cost him a RWC spot.

Another chance? Similar to Yamasawa, he should be a player who could arrive as an important player for the Japan team over the next 4 year cycle and for RWC 2023.

Other notable absentees:
Tumua Manu (Samoa) one of the few homegrown Samoan players currently in Super Rugby he became first choice starter at the Chiefs but again remaining New Zealand eligible took him out of contention.
Joaquín Prada (Uruguay) offered valuable experience and started every game of the successful ARC campaign earlier this year but withdrew as could not get time off from his doctor studies.

14. Sevu Reece (Fiji)

Reason? In May John McKee said Reece "would love to play for Fiji" but for NZ Super Rugby contract restrictions preventing him. However afterwards his form (14 tries in 11 games for Waikato in Mitre10 Cup, 15 tries in 14 games in Super Rugby for Crusaders) continued to be so spectacular he ended up being an All Blacks call up.

Another chance? An exception the title of this article, he is at the RWC just for the All Blacks not Fiji.

Other notable absentees:
Toni Pulu (Tonga or USA) eligible for two Tier 2 nations at this RWC, however spent his entire career in Super Rugby remaining uncapped to keep eligibility for the two Tier 1 nations he is also eligible for.
Akihito Yamada (Japan) still at 33 has a super try scoring rate in the Top League but omitted as Jamie Joseph said he wanted a bigger wingers to deal with aerial bombardments from Ireland and Scotland.
Eroni Sau (Fiji) part of the squad over this past year but got pushed out by Filipo Nakosi, at 29 and with Fiji producing tonnes of talented wingers this was likely his only chance at a RWC.

15. Melani Nanai (Samoa)

Reason? Much the same situation as with Taufua. Having left Super Rugby for a European club it seemed this could now possibly free Nanai to play for Samoa but this was not to be. He is a third uncapped player at Worcester eligible for a Tier 2 nation (fourth if you also add Callum Black who withdrew from a USA squad shortly after signing for them last year) who could have made this tournament but hasn't.

Another chance? Only just turned 26 so could play the entire next 4 year cycle for Samoa if he wants, but then if he did want to why wouldn't he start at a RWC?

Other notable absentees:

Seta Tuicuvu (Fiji) an ill timed injury last November robbed of a chance to make a strong case as a starter and got little opportunity in the PNC with Kini Murimurivalu the preferred 15.

Divan Rossouw (Namibia) the only homegrown Namibian player currently in Super Rugby and former U20 player for them but never been named in a senior squad (most likely to eligibility restrictions ...).

Chrysander Botha (Namibia) a regular for Namibia for years and on his way to a third RWC, but was another surprise exclusion of a senior player with the rumours of fall out inside the camp.

A look at the RWC 2019 schedules for Tier 2 sides

According to WR CEO Brett Gosper the "goal is to have most competitive RWC ever (T1vT2)" and the "2019 schedule is most balanced RWC ever for Tier 2 countries". He also noted it was "the longest ever T2 rest periods are ahead of games vs T1s".

Japan taking on Scotland in 2015 just
three days after playing South Africa

And it is true at the 2019 RWC fewer of the short turnarounds that Tier 2 sides will have to face seem to involve Tier 1 sides which must have come from feedback from coaches after the last RWC.

In 2015 several Tier 2 sides had to back up against two Tier 1 sides on a very short turnaround (Japan vs South Africa then Scotland, Fiji vs England then Australia, Tonga vs Argentina then New Zealand, Romania vs France then Ireland). That would be tough even for bigger teams with more depth to get optimal results against sides like Australia, Ireland, or Scotland only a few days after playing England, France, or South Africa (the short turnarounds for Tier 1 by contrast all mostly involve one of the lowest seeds in the pool usually after rather than before a big game).

This time there are none of those tight turnarounds against top ranked sides in the tournament, but what this means however is more of the matches with short rest for Tier 2 sides are ones that are the two most winnable in the pool. Notably for Uruguay (Fiji then Georgia on three days rest), Georgia (Uruguay then Fiji on three days rest), Russia (Japan then Samoa on three days rest), or USA (Argentina then Tonga on three days rest) are left with squad management dilemmas.

Within the constraints of five team pools that guarantee some short rest periods, and TV demands that mean matches between the big teams are not midweek games, WR do seem to have been genuine in at least attempting at something a bit better relative to past tournaments. Obviously some teams still have got tough schedules (Canada perhaps the worst), and the only real way to be able to remove the worst of the short turnarounds in scheduling is with 4 team pools in an expanded 24 team RWC.

At RWC 2019 one team in each pool (Japan, Namibia, Tonga, Australia) have got lucky with no really short three or four day turnarounds at all and three of those are Tier 2. By comparison in 2015 five teams had no three or four day turnarounds and only one of those (Samoa, who qualified as second pool seed) were not Tier 1. Also no side in 2019 has to play not just one but two of their matches on three or four day turnarounds, whereas in 2015 five teams had to and all of them were Tier 2.

Here we take a quick look at exactly what each Tier 2 team will have to prepare for next year.

Pool A

 Japan | Russia [7 days] Ireland [6 days] Samoa [7 days] Scotland

As hosts of the tournament the Cherry Blossoms get the best schedule of a 6-7 days rest between each match. What's more is that two of their opponents in Samoa and Scotland play them on a short turnaround (although the latter the match before is Russia so may not have that much impact), whilst Russia also play their most winnable match on a short turnaround after playing them.

This is marked change to some of their previous tournaments for Japan. In 2003 they got rest periods of five, four, and three days and notably faded after a decent start to the tournament against Scotland and for part of the match against France. In 2015 the schedule made reaching the quarter finals very difficult even despite the win against South Africa (especially as the Boks got a double losing bonus point in that match). This time if Japan do not perform it will not be to do with their schedule.

 Samoa | Russia [5 days] Scotland [4 days] Japan [6 days] Ireland

Samoa get the advantage of playing Russia on a short three day rest, but then themselves face the hosts Japan on just four days rest from playing Scotland. Even though recent form would have them firm underdogs, they have risen to big occasions in the past and will be targeting that Scotland match, the result of which would likely determine their approach to the Japan match on short rest afterwards.

 Russia | Japan [3 days] Samoa [8 days] Ireland [5 days] Scotland

In the opening match of the tournament with 50,000 fans and a big TV audience, there is no question that Russia will want to kickoff the tournament with nothing less than their best and after this November will believe they could even cause an upset. The Bears don't have enormous squad depth and the next match is their most winnable but on 3 days rest against a fresh Samoa side which will be hard does reduce their chances of getting an upset and first RWC win in this tournament.

Pool B

 Namibia | Italy [5 days] South Africa [7 days] New Zealand [6 days] Canada

If there was ever a tournament Namibia were going to break their RWC duck it is this one as both pool draw and scheduling has been favourable. Unlike the past two RWCs where the Namibians were simply shot by the end (see Wales 2011 or Argentina 2015) after fielding more or less a full team throughout on some really tight turnarounds, this time they get a much better schedule. Not only do they play the big teams on more reasonable rest, but they have also drawn an off form Canadian side and will have full rest for that too, whilst the Canucks will come into that four days from playing South Africa.

 Canada | Italy [5 days] New Zealand [5 days] South Africa [4 days] Namibia

Unluckily for Canada they are the only team in the tournament who do not get a full week rest once. They cannot play the same team throughout and are the team who the schedule makes possibly most likely to field a weakened side against a major team (probably South Africa) in order to keep something left for the most winnable match against Namibia at the end. This is a bad schedule for Kingsley Jones' team, only consolation is two of the Tier 1 opponents Italy (coming off Namibia) and South Africa (coming off Italy) also play them on short rest as well.

Pool C

 USA | England [5 days] France [6 days] Argentina [3 days] Tonga

Some over the course of this year have started to believe the USA have become overwhelming favourites against Tonga at the RWC. A look at their record against them (and Pacific Island opposition in general) would suggest that is not the case, even less so when you consider they play that match on 3 days rest.

The matches against Australia and South Africa in the past two RWCs with weakened teams were horrible matches for Eagles fans and may have even had the effect to sap morale from the camp and supporters as much as it did to rest players. You get the sense Gary Gold may not repeat that this time around and will aim for strong performances both against Argentina and Tonga. It is a tough challenge to deliver and will test the depth and conditioning done for the tournament next year.

 Tonga | England [5 days] Argentina [7 days] France [6 days] USA

Along with Japan and Namibia, Tonga are one of the three lucky Tier 2 sides who have got a schedule with no really short turnarounds. They also play both their final two fixtures against France and USA against sides on three days rest. The Ikale Tahi could not have got a much better schedule and can really target a good result at every match.

Pool D

 Fiji | Australia [3 days] Uruguay [7 days] Georgia [5 days] Wales

This is somewhat better than the nightmare pool draw and schedule Fiji had in 2015. Their match on short rest this time is Uruguay, a team they have recently obliterated and can likely back the depth of their squad to get a good result whilst resting top players. They also get an advantage of coming from that fresh for their next match with Georgia who will be coming off 3 days rest.

 Georgia | Wales [5 days] Uruguay [3 days] Fiji [7 days] Australia

The pool draw for RWC 2019 was not great for Georgia. The fourth pool seeds have a wide range in quality from Fiji at World Ranking 8 to Namibia at 22, and the Lelos not only got the toughest possible fourth seed but a schedule where they face them only on 3 days rest. This is a tricky test for Milton Haig as whilst Georgia will be favourites against Uruguay beforehand, they are not as strong favourites as Fiji are and have a habit of not looking great against weaker teams (see Namibia 2015 one of many examples) so cannot really afford to take Los Teros lightly either.

However Georgia does have a bit more depth than in previous years, so rotating some frontline starters to get past Uruguay may not carry quite the same risk as before. Certainly Haig has two front rows, back rows, and scrum halves he could swap without losing too much. Georgia will need to produce one of their best ever results to beat a fully prepared incredibly talented Fiji team on this schedule.

 Uruguay | Fiji [3 days] Georgia [5 days] Australia [7 days] Wales

The Uruguayans achieved one of their best ever results beating Canada away to qualify as Americas 2 for this tournament and avoid going through the Repechage for the first time. However this has meant they actually got a much more difficult pool to win a game, along with another hard schedule.

Uruguay have their most winnable game against Georgia on 3 days rest from their second most winnable game against Fiji. Only thing in their favour is that Georgia will have to also deal with a tight schedule playing on three days rest themselves after that match. Los Teros need to be at their very best to get good results from this pool, even against the Tier 2 sides, and they do not have great depth in many positions which makes managing the squad much harder for Esteban Meneses.

Full RWC 2019 schedule of rest periods (chart by @rpetty80)

The underachievement of the Samoan rugby development system relative to Fiji and Tonga

Samoa A, Fiji Warriors, and Tonga A captain with the Pacific Challenge trophy

One thing we see often in the rugby world is the lumping together of the three Pacific Island sides Fiji, Tonga, and Samoa. However one notable and quite marked difference between them is the productiveness of each nation's development systems in successfully getting players to the highest level.

Even minus 100+ professional players
in Europe or the Southern Hemisphere
Fiji still has the "on-island" talent to
win the Australian NRC this year

Fiji are the strongest Pacific Island in terms of homegrown born & raised "on-island" talent and export the most players by some margin, in particular wingers, to one of the sport's elite professional leagues.

Usually at least over 85% of their team is born & raised in Fiji apart two or three players, one of which is often the 10 shirt which was held by their all time most capped player Nicky Little for a long time, and more recently over the past four years been worn by Ben Volavola or Josh Matavesi.

In all this season there are 95 homegrown Fijian players playing in a professional league in Western Europe this season, 47 of whom are in one of the three main European leagues. There were also 16 Fijians in the Super Rugby this year and 28 in the Mitre 10 Cup and NRC (not including the 35 man Fijian Drua squad which won the trophy).

Whereas Samoa is basically the opposite with the majority of their squad being either born in New Zealand or having moved there as a child. This can be summed up looking at their recent 31 man November squad with about 27 players who mostly grew up in New Zealand or Australia.

This season there are only 8 players who grew up in Samoa at least to the age of 15 or 16 in one Europe's three main leagues, along with only two in Super Rugby, and five in the Mitre 10 Cup or NRC (and two of those five only played 23 minutes between them over the entire season).

In between those two in terms of producing homegrown players at the top level is Tonga, who similarly to Samoa have numerous players raised in New Zealand or Australia, but not quite to the same extent. Roughly 10-12 of their 30 man squad this November was mostly raised in Tonga.

Tonga does not export the overall quantity of homegrown players to elite leagues as Fiji, with about 20 in the three main European leagues this season, along with 13 in Super Rugby (6 of whom were based in Japan) and 18 in the Mitre 10 Cup and NRC this year. However they do have players spread more evenly across positions. If you were to look only at the forwards then they export just as many players to professional leagues as Fiji do, and comfortably more front rowers.

Also worth noting that of all the Tier 2 nations it is only really Fiji and Tonga, who can legitimately complain about losing players to bigger nations on a noteworthy scale.

Fiji currently has a total of 16 homegrown players active in professional rugby who have been named in Tier 1 nation squads. The latest being Alivereti Raka and Isi Naisarani, the latter of whom played for the Wallabies in a trial game last August even though he is not officially eligible until next March.

They are the Tier 2 nation who lose by far the largest amount of homegrown talent from their domestic development system to Tier 1 nations. Unlike the other Pacific Islands, they also get back far less in terms of getting New Zealand or Australian trained players than those they lose. It's a remarkable testament to their depth, that even minus 13 centres/wingers who have swapped to Tier 1 nations their national team still has such incredible options in those positions to select from.

Homegrown Pacific Islanders active in professional rugby with Tier 1 nations

Fiji						Tonga
Nathan Hughes	ENG	N8	Wasps	Int’l		Taniela Tupou	AUS	TH	Queensland Country	Int’l
Isi Naisarani	AUS	N8	Melbourne Rising			Pasi Uluilakepa	NZL	TH	Wellington	U20
Manoa Vosawai	ITA	N8	Vannes	Int’l		Sitaleki Timani	AUS	LK	Clermont	Int’l
Tevita Kuridrani	AUS	CT	Canberra Vikings	Int’l		Vaea Fifita	NZL	FL	Wellington	Int’l
Seta Tamanivalu	NZL	CT	Bordeaux-Bègles	Int’l		Shannon Frizell	NZL	FL	Tasman	Int’l
Virimi Vakatawa	FRA	CT	Racing 92	Int’l		Lopeti Timani	AUS	FL	La Rochelle	Int’l
Marika Koroibete	AUS	WG	Melbourne Rising	Int’l		Malakai Fekitoa	NZL	CT	Toulon	Int’l
Eto Nabuli	AUS	WG	Bordeaux-Bègles	Int’l		Frank Halai	NZL	WG	Pau	Int’l
Waisake Naholo	NZL	WG	Taranaki	Int’l
Sefa Naivalu	AUS	WG	Melbourne Rising	Int’l		Samoa
Taqele Naiyaravoro	AUS	WG	Northampton	Int’l		Fritz Lee	NZL	N8	Clermont	7s
Noa Nakaitaci	FRA	WG	Lyon	Int’l		David Smith	NZL	WG	Castres	7s
Alivereti Raka	FRA	WG	Clermont
Joe Ravouvou	NZL	WG	Auckland	7s
Semesa Rokoduguni	ENG	WG	Bath	Int’l
Henry Speight	AUS	WG	Ulster	Int’l

Tonga also has a total of 7 born and raised players active in elite professional rugby who are cap tied to Tier 1 nations in New Zealand or Australia. That is comfortably less than Fiji, but overall Tonga actually loses more players to higher ranked nations than probably anyone else in the world owing to the numbers of young players who have moved to Japan.

There are many Tongans in Japan, 12 have played for the Brave Blossoms over this RWC cycle, plus others for the 7s team, whilst this year's U20 team featured four. Not all those players would have necessarily made the Tongan team, but some like Amanaki Mafi, or a prospect like Tevita Tatafu surely would do. The Ikale Tahi nearly lost their current number 8 Sione Vailanu to Japan as well after he was called up to their Wellington 7s squad in 2016 but didn't end up playing.

Fritz Lee representing NZ 7s in 2010

On the otherhand there are only currently two professional players, David Smith and Fritz Lee, who were born and raised in Samoa at least to 15 or 16 and who are cap tied to other nations. Neither were full All Blacks but played for New Zealand (very briefly) at 7s. They both also could have used the Olympic qualifying loophole in 2016 to be eligible for Samoa, but in the end didn't.

So to say Samoa, unlike Fiji, get a substantial net gain in players from the New Zealand system is an understatement. In the nearly 9 years since since Samoa last saw a homegrown player who grew up in the country to at least age 15 switch to a major nation they have selected c. 80 players raised in New Zealand or Australia.

Relative to Fiji and Tonga, the Samoans do not lose really that many homegrown players to major nations. Only two players who lived there to at least 15 or 16 have made All Black test debuts in the professional era (Casey Laulala and Sosene Anesi), Fiji has had 12 homegrown players make test debuts for Tier 1 nations just in the past four years (with Raka and Naisarani still to come), and Tonga 5 players plus all of those in Japan. In terms of active players in professional rugby Samoa has lost as many homegrown players to Tier 1 nations as Spain and fewer than Zimbabwe.

It is of course no mystery as to why there would be so many players raised in New Zealand in the Samoan team. According to the 2013 census there are 144,138 people who identify themselves as being of Samoan or part Samoan ethnicity in New Zealand. That's nearly 75% the size of population of 196,400 in Samoa itself (add Australia to that and it's probably nearer 85%), so players from New Zealand form a considerable percentage of their eligible player pool, all who would get the benefits of coaching, facilities, and pathways to professionalism that don't exist in the same way in Samoa.

By contrast 14,445 people who identify as Fijian ethnicity in New Zealand, which is less than 2% the size of Fiji's considerably bigger population of 905,502. So you would also expect a far higher percentage of their eligible player pool to be Fijian born and raised players.

Nonu, Savea, Kaino, Vito four players of
Samoan heritage lineup at RWC 2015

But whilst you would probably expect a fair amount of Samoa's team to be raised in New Zealand, what does remain a mystery is why the disparity is simply so enormous between the Samoan players who were born or emigrated as children to New Zealand, countless of whom have become genuinely world class players at the very highest level (the All Blacks have had 7-8 players with Samoan heritage in each of their last four RWC squads), and the Samoan players who stay on the island to at least to 15 or 16 who seem to be massively underachieving and not realising their potential.

If you were to line up a fantasy XV of players from Samoan background who grew up in New Zealand (with the likes of Ardie Savea, Rieko Ioane, Victor Vito, Richie Mo'unga, Charlie Faumuina, Steven Luatua, Anton Lienert-Brown, Patrick Tuipulotu plus many others including those in the Samoan team) and lined it up against what an XV from players who grew up mostly in Samoa would be it would simply be a mismatch. One would be a potential RWC semi finalist, the other barely in the world's top 16. Players of that level coming from the Samoan system are few and far between.

Former hooker Mahonri Schwalger, founder of Rugby Academy Samoa, has acknowledged that the majority of the players in Samoan teams in recent years have been from overseas saying "we don’t have the resources in terms of coaching, and facilities to develop our boys to the top level".

However whilst that may be true, it still doesn't explain everything. Tonga is an even smaller country than Samoa, also have a significant population in New Zealand and Australia, plus would likely have similar issues in regards to coaching and facilities yet the chasm between New Zealand born Tongans and homegrown Tongans does not exist in nearly the same way.

The most recent Tongan born and
raised All Black Shannon Frizell

Tonga are comfortably outperforming Samoa when it comes to producing homegrown talent progressing to the elite level both in quantity and quality. For example just this week the 2019 New Zealand Super Rugby squads were named and there were six homegrown Tongan players, that's more in five teams than there were Samoans across 14 teams in the Mitre 10 Cup.

Overall Tonga have nearly three times the amount of homegrown players than Samoa do in one of the sport's major professional leagues. Over the past five years or so Tonga has been producing more All Blacks or Wallabies than Samoa has Super Rugby players.

This underachievement is possibly historical as well if you look back at the pattern of results betwen the Pacific Islands in the pre-RWC era. This was prior to so much influence from the New Zealand system and where most of these teams were "on-island" players and suggestive of a similar pattern.

From the 88 tests played between the three Pacific Islands prior to RWC 1987 (which at the time was most of their fixtures), Fiji were comfortably on top with a win percentage of 72%, Tonga second on 44%, whilst Samoa trailed behind on 23% with just 8 wins from 39 (and only 2 wins from 18 against Fiji).

Frank Bunce and Stephen Bachop playing for Samoa during
their breakthrough win over Wales at RWC 1991

Both Fiji (against Australia in the 1950s, or the Lions in the 1970s) and Tonga (against Australia in 1973) also recorded highly notable wins over major teams in that period too. Samoa's breakthrough win over a major nation famously came at RWC 1991 against Wales, with a large factor behind that being a squad boosted with players from New Zealand, which comprised half of their XV that day including players such as Frank Bunce, Stephen Bachop, Pat Lam, Apollo Perelini, or Timo Tagaloa.

The introduction of players of that calibre in the RWC era was a turning point for Samoan rugby. A pre-RWC era win percentage for Samoa against Fiji and Tonga of 23% increased significantly to 64% in the RWC era, making them the top ranked Pacific Island ahead of close rival Fiji on 60%, and Tonga on 27%. Indeed there was a run of games between 1987-2000 where Samoa only lost 4 times in 26 matches against Fiji and Tonga (although as we speak right now they are on their worst ever run of results against their Pacific rivals in the RWC era with just one win from their last 8). Samoa also now have more wins against Tier 1 nations than any other Tier 2 nation, and in a period from 2010-2013 worked their way to becoming the only side to date outside Tier 1 to reach top 8 in the World Rankings.

So why are so relatively few players who grew up through the Samoan system at least to aged 15 or 16 reaching the elite level when you consider both how many New Zealand born players to Samoan parents, or Samoan born players who moved to New Zealand as children have become among the world's best, and how the other Pacific Islands Fiji and Tonga are both producing much more?

There must be the exact same natural talent and physically gifted players in Samoa as New Zealand, but something somewhere in the system must be going wrong.

Viliamu Afatia is the only "on-island"
player from Samoa's best ever U20
team of 2009 that finished 7th to
progress to a lengthy pro career

Samoa's U20s were for some time the strongest performing nation outside Tier 1 at that level, but have a terrible rate at converting that talent to the senior ranks. Their best ever U20 side was in 2009 beating Scotland and Ireland to finish 7th and featured about 2/3 "on-island" players. Yet only three players from that team (Uini Atonio, Fa'atiga Lemalu, Viliamu Afatia) have had meaningful careers at an elite level, two of those were New Zealand born players from the team, and one of them now plays for France. Most of those "on-island" players from that team have disappeared into total obscurity.

The Ireland U20 squad that year produced five members of their RWC 2015 squad and three 2017 British & Irish Lions, whilst the Samoan U20 squad that beat it produced only one player of their RWC 2015 squad in Afatia. In fact if you look at the past 15 Samoan age grade squads between them they have only produced one single start in a RWC match for Samoa (which was Fa'atoina Autagavaia vs Scotland in 2015). That's a remarkable stat considering they have been consistently in the top tier competition for most of that period. Players from New Zealand and Australia's age grade teams since 2004 have made more appearances in Samoan teams at the past three RWCs than Samoa's own.

Since then their squad increasingly became more like the senior team in leaning on players based in New Zealand in Australia. In 2014 as few as 4 out of 28 players in the squad were based in Samoa. This year though with 19 out of a squad of 26 the U20s selected a much more Samoa based squad than usual, but the gulf that exists between the level of their "on-island" talent and that of Fiji's was pretty clear. After an easy route to the final via a lopsided pool draw where Samoa U20 did not look particularly impressive against weak opposition, they were then comprehensively thrashed 58-8 by the Fijians. Samoa's U20 team this year was possibly not in the world's top 15 or 16.

Where there are signs of more positivity it was came with the recent slightly surprising victory of a predominantly domestic based Samoa 'A' squad in the Americas Pacific Challenge. There is also talk some of those "on-island" players could get a Fijian Drua type side in the NRC from World Rugby.

Melani Matavao has been a success
story this year as a talented young
"on-island" player from Samoa to
breakthrough in the national team
and is also the only such players under
the age of 25 in professional rugby

Also this year we have seen one of their best homegrown prospects for several years in scrum half Melani Matavao emerge into a starting position in the national team and as a successor to Kahn Fotuali'i. Tumua Manu, although not yet in the national team, also worked his way from Samoa to a place in Super Rugby with the Blues and now for next year the Chiefs. Hopefully there will be more "on-island" players inspired to follow Matavao's path into international rugby and Samoa can make better use of some of the talent that surely is there.

However we have been listing players from Tier 2 nations for several years now and without a doubt the trend has been heading downwards for those Samoans making it in professional rugby.

The pool of homegrown Samoan players in one of main three leagues in Europe has been shrinking as slowly older players such as David Lemi, Zak Taulafo, Maurie Fa'asavalu, Alesana Tuilagi have been fading off the scene at the elite level. Also of the 8 players this season in the three main leagues in Europe the only one of them who is under 30 years old is 28.

So unless something changes then by the time we reach this point of the next RWC cycle the pool of homegrown Samoan players in elite professional rugby could be even smaller.

Realistically some of those players such as Joe Tekori, Taiasina Tuifua, or David Smith are likely nearer the end than start of their careers at the top end of the sport now. Younger players to have moved to Top 14 clubs France as Espoirs in recent times have either dropped to Pro D2 like Robert Lilomaiava, or simply not broken through to professional level at all like Paul Ah Him or Laki Lee.

Again to contrast, this season there are over 40 Fijians and 20 Tongans under the age of 25 in professional leagues in Western Europe, and the Mitre 10 Cup or NRC in the Southern Hemisphere, whilst the sole homegrown Samoan player under 25 is Matavao at Otago.

The way things are going it seems the very low percentage of homegrown players in the Samoan squad we have seen named this November could become the norm moving into the 2020's.