Lineout is a huge point of difference between Tier 1 and Tier 2

It should be noted lineout stats do not totally illustrate the full picture. A lineout won at the back offers better attacking possession but is more difficult, so a team that may in fact have a very good lineout in order to attempt that more often could have worse figures than one that only throws safely to the front. Also to what degree an opponent competes matters as well, with sometimes impressive lineout numbers built on an opponent preferring to focus on defending mauls, whilst also a lineout win in terms of stats can't differentiate between the quality and cleanness of the win either.

However whilst keeping that in mind the stats over a period of time (and simply watching many of the matches with your own eyes) do nevertheless seem to illustrate quite clearly the difference between Tier 1 and Tier 2 in this facet of the game. Almost universally at lineout Tier 1 nations are superior and in matches against Tier 2 have very often dominated in this area.

Take for example RWC 2015. The overall average lineout success at the tournament was 87%. For Tier 1 teams it was 90%, whilst for Tier 2 teams it was 83%. However the difference is even startker when you look at the 23 matches in the tournament between Tier 1 and Tier 2. In those it was 95% lineouts won by Tier 1 nations against 79% from Tier 2 nations.

Lineouts in matches between Tier 1 and Tier 2 at RWC 2015
Tier 1	Own	Opp.	Diff.	Tier 2	Own	Opp.	Diff.
France	93%	65%	+28	Namibia	95%	89%	+5
Ireland	100%	76%	+24	Japan	96%	96%	-
New Zealand	94%	71%	+23	Fiji	87%	89%	-1
South Africa	98%	76%	+22	Romania	79%	89%	-11
England	96%	77%	+19	USA	76%	94%	-17
Wales	100%	81%	+19	Canada	83%	100%	-18
Australia	88%	76%	+12	Samoa	75%	96%	-21
Argentina	94%	84%	+10	Tonga	72%	95%	-23
Scotland	92%	83%	+9	Georgia	70%	97%	-27
Italy	90%	94%	-4	Uruguay	67%	100%	-33
OVERALL	95%	79%	+16	OVERALL	79%	95%	-16

Steve Borthwick coached Japan to over
a 90% success rate at lineout in 2015

The only Tier 2 side at the last RWC who was operating at more than 90% was Japan who won 43 out of 46 lineouts (93%) at the tournament. It cannot be stated enough how successful Marc Dal Maso and Steve Borthwick were coaching that side at set piece (by comparison their success at lineout in the previous tournament in 2011 was 81% and 72% against the Tier 1 opponents.

As for the rest of the Tier 2 nations you can cite numerous games where lineout losses dented their efforts significantly. Georgia vs New Zealand or Argentina, USA vs Scotland, Uruguay vs Australia or England, Romania vs France, Samoa vs South Africa all are matches from RWC 2015 that stand out.

If you look at a wider sample of matches between Tier 1 and Tier 2 nations over the past five years it tells a similar story. Over 83 matches against Tier 2 in that period Tier 1 nations win 92% of their lineouts whilst Tier 2 only wins 81% against Tier 1. Even though obviously personnel and coaching staff has changed over that time that figure has remained relatively consistent. Over a smaller sample size of the past two years of matches, Tier 1 nations have won 93% of lineouts vs Tier 2 84%. In the most recent November Tier 1 vs Tier 2 tests it was 92% lineout success from Tier 1 vs 79% from Tier 2.

Lineouts in matches between Tier 1 and Tier 2 in the past 5 years
Tier 1	Own	Opp.	Diff.	Tier 2	Own	Opp.	Diff.
South Africa	98%	76%	+22	Namibia	95%	89%	+5
New Zealand	93%	76%	+17	USA	85%	87%	-2
England	97%	81%	+16	Japan	87%	93%	-6
Argentina	95%	81%	+14	Fiji	82%	90%	-8
England	96%	77%	+12	Romania	79%	89%	-11
France	93%	82%	+11	Canada	84%	95%	-11
Italy	92%	82%	+10	Georgia	78%	92%	-14
Ireland	91%	82%	+9	Samoa	78%	96%	-18
Scotland	90%	81%	+8	Tonga	73%	94%	-21
Australia	92%	84%	+8	Uruguay	67%	100%	-33
OVERALL	92%	81%	+11	OVERALL	81%	92%	-11

What is notable looking at those figures it is not down to one team. Every single Tier 1 nation has a lineout success rate over 90% against Tier 2, and most of them win at least 18% of Tier 2 lineouts. There has scarcely been a match where a Tier 1 nation's lineout has ever really collapsed against a Tier 2 nation. The Ireland vs USA match this November was actually the first time in 56 tests between Tier 1 and Tier 2 nations that a Tier 1 nation operated at less than 80%. Whereas Tier 2 nations lineout has disintegrated frequently against Tier 1 and were sub 80% in 23 of those tests and sub 70% in 13 of them.

The sole Tier 2 nation up against Tier 1 over the last five years with a positive difference between their own lineouts and opposition lineouts is Namibia and that is from a really small sample size of 38 lineouts in only 2 matches that were not competitive. If you consider they also have a low sub 80% success rate in their other tests against other Tier 2 nations like Georgia, Tonga, or Uruguay it is not something that would very likely be maintained if they played even just a couple more matches.

GIF: Cam Dolan spares the USA another tiring defensive set in their own 22 with a lineout steal
vs Ireland. This was the most positive aspect of the Eagles game this November, over their three tests
their lineout operated at 92%, whilst opponents were at just 65% with Dolan and Nick Civetta
putting pressure on them. Overall they are an exception right now amongst Tier 2 nations in terms of
lineout success and delivering percentages of comparable with the elite in World Rugby.

Looking more specifically at individual nations lineout success over this RWC cycle (where stats are available which is most tests apart the REC, ARC, or PNC which do not get listed for some reason) there is one Tier 2 nation which stands out way beyond the rest in this area and that is the USA.

In test matches in the RWC cycle (excluding ARC) the Eagles have been operating at 91% and are the only side outside Tier 1 over that 90% mark, whilst their opponents at 82%. That figure doesn't change too much adjusting it just to their matches against Tier 1 over this cycle either (albeit from only 4 matches).

In terms of most successful lineout percentages the USA are the third most successful side in the world in this RWC cycle (the only Tier 2 nation in the top 8). That is quite an achievement from a team who were only 80% against Tier 1 in the previous cycle under Mike Tolkin and at RWC 2015 had the third worst lineout percentage on their own throw in the tournament.

Top 5 best and worst lineouts vs Tier 1 opposition in this RWC cycle
Best	Own	Opp.	Diff.	Worst	Own	Opp.	Diff.
New Zealand	90%	81%	+9	Tonga	79%	95%	-16
USA	91%	85%	+6	Fiji	80%	94%	-14
England	90%	87%	+3	Samoa	85%	97%	-12
South Africa	90%	87%	+3	Georgia	81%	89%	-8
Ireland	89%	87%	+2	Italy	84%	92%	-8

Notably 2018 under Gary Gold was particularly good for their USA lineout. In the June and November window they operated at 95% winning 70 from 74 lineouts (including going 100% in both their two tests against Tier 1) whilst their opponents against them have only been at 77%. That is huge and those numbers are up there along with the best of any international lineout this calendar year.

As for the others though there is a lot of work to do. Whilst Fiji's scrum may have been more competitive against strong opposition in recent times, their lineout isn't. Over this RWC cycle they have operated at only 80% in 8 matches against Tier 1 teams, whilst their opponents 94%.

Same goes for Samoa and Tonga. In their matches against Tier 1 over the past five years they have operated at 76% whilst their opponents are at 95%. Only Uruguay who were the worst set piece at RWC 2015 and won just 67% of lineouts have a worse record than them in matches involving Tier 1.

Video: Tonga's lineout record against Tier 1 nations has been consistently

terrible and this was one of the worst matches vs Scotland in November 2014.

The REC sides have fared no better. Georgia's lineout has also continually failed them badly whenever they have come up against Tier 1 against whom they win just 78% of their own ball whilst opponents are at 92%. They had the second worst lineout percentage at RWC 2015, whilst as for Romania they have had the lowest lineout success rate of any top 20 side over tests in this RWC cycle.

So whilst the average lineout success is around 88%. If you look at the top 8 Tier 2 nations ranked in the world's top 18, there are six lineouts that are either below or barely above 80% against Tier 1. Another one in Japan that post-Borthwick is still good by Tier 2 standards and did well this year in every match bar the New Zealand one, but judging by Tier 1 standards its overall success in the past three years is a little below average. With the USA being the exception in delivering lineout success that is truly competitive on a level with Tier 1 nations (their scrum on the otherhand though ...).

Source possession of tries at RWC 2015

Needless to say the lineout is crucially important. It is the most common restart in the game, with on average around 25 per match (twice the number of scrums on average). You can also trace many points scored back to them, at the last RWC 45% of tries scored begun from possession won at lineout. When it fails repeatedly at key times it plays a massive role in a game. It is no coincidence at that RWC the one Tier 2 nation who had an incredibly successful tournament was the one which nailed lineout and set piece overall to be competitive to a high level.

It is also clearly an area where huge improvement is required from several Tier 2 nations if they hope to cause major upsets next year and beyond. Tier 1 having a 95% lineout against a 79% Tier 2 lineout as they did in 2015 is a massive advantage for them. Which begs the question why do so few of them appear to employ specialist lineout coaches?

If you look at their coaching setups virtually all have scrum coaches on board. Dan Cron (Tonga), Ben Afeaki (Samoa), Alan Muir (Fiji), Shawn Pittman (USA), Graham Rowntree (Georgia), Shin Hasegawa (Japan), Oscar Durán (Uruguay), Mike Shelley (Canada), whilst Romania had Massimo Cuttitta working with them up until recently under the Lynn Howells regime.

Fiji lineout coach Neil Barnes

Whereas the only one currently with a lineout specialist listed on the staff list seems to be Fiji with Neil Barnes (whilst Romania had their now former head coach Thomas Lièvremont listed as a "lineout consultant" earlier in the year before his appointment). Obviously some of those scrummaging coaches listed above are also working more broadly on other parts of forward play too, but they are still nevertheless virtually all former front row forwards bringing that specialist expertise, and it seems a bit curious as to why lineout specialists seem in comparatively less demand given its importance in the game and also it being such a weak area for several of these sides.

Of course you cannot forget the scrum either, but certainly a team like Georgia in recent times have actually been in far more need of a specialist lineout guru (along with one who could also help fix their atrociously inefficient maul) than they have been in truly desperate need of help at scrum.

In any case hopefully in a year with more time in the RWC preparation camp than most Tier 2 squads usually get together this will be an area where major improvements are targeted.