Friday, 14 December 2018

Can Romanian rugby recover again from a horrible 2018?

A disconsolate Romanian team after the disastrous finish vs Uruguay
12 months ago the Oaks had just beaten Samoa, Canada away from home with 14 men, and finally beaten Georgia to win the Rugby Europe Championship for the first time since 2010 (although bizarrely managed to mess up a match in Germany which cost them a first Grand Slam since 2002), and looked to be on course to open the RWC 2019 in Japan, which would have been a fitting stage as a possible farewell for several superb servants to the Oaks from the U19 2005 group or the Ursache brothers.

However a horrific 2018 for Romanian rugby has ripped all those plans to shreds. They now enter what is their centenary year in 2019 with the RWC having been stolen away from them by the eligibility fiasco, considerable discontent in relationships between the fans and the FRR as a result of that (Romanian rugby supporters club recently launched a petition for resignations at the Union), their reputation attacked by a campaign of lies and conspiracy theories from a furious Spanish online mob (which were lapped up by certain English speaking rugby media too), and are now without a coach after the shambolic appointment of Thomas Lièvremont who left 3 matches into 5 year contract.

Whilst they finished the year on the field playing at a small ground in front of three figure crowds getting comfortably beat by the USA, and then losing in a calamitous 28 phase last play to Uruguay.

Video: The final play of Romania vs Uruguay in November

It should be noted that was with a second string pack, so not really a true reflection of Romania's standing at this point, but losing in that manner at home to a side like the USA or to sides who the Oaks always used to beat like Uruguay (the previous time Los Teros travelled to Bucharest they lost 36-10) in front of dwindling crowds may unfortunately have been a glimpse into their future. It is a future with now no RWC on the horizon they have been forced to confront 18 months earlier than anticipated.

A small crowd at a small stadium watch Romania vs USA this November
Some optimists in Romania have commented that age grade rugby is not necessarily a reflection of senior rugby and cite the existence of a professional league which not all competitors have. There may be some truth in that, but ultimately it remains wishful thinking when you look just to the extent of how bad the state of Romanian youth rugby is in.

In the World Rugby U20 Trophy this year expectations were not high for Romania given they qualified only as hosts and had lost to the Netherlands in March. However (with some mitigation for injury) they still managed to shock people as to how awful they were, shipping 50+ points to teams like Namibia and Hong Kong (both of whom were thrashed on the final day by Portugal and Uruguay), and ended up bottom after 71-14 thumping vs Canada. Simply passing the ball down the line was a struggle for them.

This year Romania placed 11th in Europe at U18 and 12th at U20 level. In world terms when you consider teams not present at either of the World Rugby U20 tournaments they were certainly not top 20 and possibly not even in the world's top 25.

It was exposed far worse this year owing to the fact Romania were in the U20 Trophy for the first time since 2010, but really the struggles at age grade are nothing new. The only time in this decade Oaks have got to the final qualifier for the U20 Trophy was for 2016 where they lost 24-3 to Spain. That effectively saw them ranked 9th in Europe, but other than that for the past six years they've been outside Europe's top 10 age grade sides finishing 11th to 13th.

Indeed 2018 was possibly not even the worst Romanian age grade year. In qualifying for the 2015 U20 Trophy Romania lost 13-10 to a Belgium side whose other results in the tournament were a 38-5 loss to Portugal and 27-0 loss to the Netherlands. That side and most of the others in the past few years would have likely had some heavy defeats if were they in the U20 Trophy just as they did this year.

Romania's European ranking finishes at REC, U19/20, & U18 level over this decade. Whilst it is not a precise measure, it shows the U20s finishing 11th-13th in Europe in five of the past six years, whilst the U18s have not finished higher than 11th this decade. That is 3-5 places worse than the most usual 8th their senior team has placed. Previously in 2005 the Oaks notably had an top 10 in the world U19 team, a group that has been the core of their team for the past several years, now they struggle to reach top 10 just in Europe.
Unfortunately contrary to what some seem to be believe there is far more evidence that results at age grade level, especially in the context of a longer 10 year time frame, development of youth players are in general a far better indicator of future likelihood of success (or at least success with homegrown players) than merely having a (relatively low level) professional league.

Obviously of course it is not the same with the annual fluctuation as teams change every year, and you can point to teams who have bad years, or perhaps on average finish slightly above or below their ranking at senior level with countries with largest depth usually the more consistent.

However you will not find many national teams who have not had a single year at U20 level where they have managed to rank either equal or better than roughly where their senior ranking is at least once within the last 10 years. If you can it's probable you have found one with a number of heritage or residency players, or other players outside the national age grade system for whatever reason (Fiji for instance has produced numerous elite players like Nakarawa, Botia, Tuisova, Raka who were never part of their U20 setup). In any case where there are instances it is not common.

Whereas if you look at nations with profeessional leagues it is not really much of an indicator of where a side may rank at all. Italy had pro teams for years, but (up until very recently) little success in significant numbers of homegrown players to feed into them. They had pro teams well before Argentina yet that on its own has not stopped them being ranked behind them for years.
Image result for Georgia romania rugby 2018
Georgia, the REC team with the strongest
recent record in producing young talent,
win a fourth REC Grand Slam in 5 years

It is also Georgia, the team with the strongest record in producing young players who have dominated the REC, not Romania or Russia with professional leagues. Similarly a professional league couldn't guarantee the Russian qualification to RWC 2015 over Uruguay either. Whilst much further down an obscure professional league has hardly seen Sri Lanka surge up the rankings in Asian rugby.

You could correctly point out the likes of Argentina, Fiji, or Georgia all have had professional player pools abroad (especially France). However that was not that happened by chance, it is down to them producing the talent in the first place to earn reputations as known areas for French clubs to scout.

That is not to say that professional leagues are important in keeping talent in the sport and taking teams to the next level. However minus a successful development system to underpin it simply on its own they do not possess the magic and dramatic improvements that some people seem to think they do.

By the start of the next RWC cycle it will have been over a decade since 2009 when Romania last had an U20 team that was possibly in the top 16 in the world. Every player from before then will be past 30, with their special group of U19s from 2005 that was in the world's top 10 all 33.

There is of course certainly still the possibility that some very good players could emerge from Romania even out of poor age grade sides. Indeed there are countries far worse than them who you can name a few decent talents. However rugby is a team sport dependent on a collection of players.

The stark reality for Romania is it will require an almost unprecedented level of overachievement at senior level relative to accomplishments at junior level for Romania as a team to be able to simply maintain the level they have been for the past 5 years once all the 2005 U19 side is retired.
Top 14 winning prop Tudor Stroe

A number of band aid solutions exist. They can try and persuade some of their current generation to continue into their mid 30s and reach another RWC. Or persuade French players in the Top 14 of Romanian parentage like Tudor Stroe or Atila Septar (if he were to play Olympic 7s qualifiers) although there is not the quantity of such players that Spain have. Or continuing to add residency players as they have been doing in this RWC cycle owing to the lack of young talent. Although the experience with Faka'osilea and an increase to 5 years residency makes that perhaps less easy and appealing. Also hope for easier qualifying with RWC expansion to 24 teams.

Those are all things could buy time for Romania and help at least soften a decline as they attempt to rebuild, but ultimately at some point the lack of youth coming through is likely to catch up with them.

It will take a miracle if in 10 years time Romania are still 8th best in Europe and top 18 in the world. Not least because they will have the enormous challenge of attempting to regalvanise the sport to attract top talent and interest with a side on the decline and outside the RWC with less WR support as well.
Image result for romania gymnastics team
Sport in Romania in general has been
declining for years including their legendary
Gymnastics team whose level has nosedived

No easy solutions exist especially when you consider Romania have been on the decline in sport in general for some time. At the most recent Olympics in 2016 they qualified only 97 athletes (down from 172 in 1992) and fell to what was by far their all time low on the medal table at 47th. They do not produce as many footballers who star in major leagues and reach World Cup knockout stages like they did in the 90s. Most recently their famous Gymnastics team has completely fallen off a cliff over the past few years and now struggle to qualify for events.

There appears to be issues in Romanian sport that reach deeper far beyond just rugby and what can be achieved with relatively small things in the broader scheme of things like who the next national team coach will be, or minor adjustments to the format of the SuperLiga. For example according to figures from Eurostat the low levels of participation in sport in Romania are a total outlier in the EU. They also have the lowest percentage of the population in the EU for attending live sports events too (something their tiny crowds for rugby can certainly back up).
File:T1 Practising sport, fitness or recreational (leisure) physical activities at least once a week, by age group, 2014.png
According to Eurostat figures participation in sport in Romania is by far the lowest in the EU
Can Romanian rugby avoid the fate the Gymnastics team recently suffered? If we are being honest the long term future looks bleak and the RWC disqualification was a cruel hammer blow on top of existing problems. However if they can manage to somehow recover and stay in the top 20 in 10 years time it will be an incredible achievement given the difficulties they face. Hopefully though they can manage to recover from a terrible 2018 and the sport doesn't see a team with such history crumble away.
Image result for espana rumania rec 2018
The performance vs Spain was one of
Romania's worst with all their top players
for several years and soon afterwards
led to Lynn Howells resignation

Timeline of Romania's year to forget


February: Lose 22-10 to Spain in what was a dreadful performance from the Oaks. This was also the first REC match Romania lose with all their front line leading players involved to a team other than Georgia for several years and seems likely to force them towards the RWC Repechage qualifying route.


March: Lynn Howells announced his resignation following the REC, bringing his 5 year reign to an end on a low note of getting beaten pretty comfortably in Tbilisi by Georgia. Although that match was overshadowed by other goings on that day which throw the tournament into chaos. Spain choke badly in Belgium qualifying Romania for the RWC, but throw a tantrum accusing a Romanian referee of cheating them. Soon afterwards a Ukrainian rugby site points out Romania centre Sione Faka'osilea played for Tonga 7s a few years ago. Suddenly the Oaks presence at RWC 2019 is again under threat.

April: Lose 38-40 to the Netherlands in a stunning upset in their opening match of the Rugby Europe U20 Championship. They qualify for the U20 Trophy later in the year regardless though after they were named as tournament hosts, but coach Fergus Pringle is sacked. The U18s beat Belgium, but also lose 67-8 to France, and 33-7 to Russia. Meanwhile Timișoara lose to Heidelberg in the Continental Shield playoff but qualify for the Challenge Cup anyway due to EPCR disallowing the ownership of the German team.

May: Officially disqualified from the RWC along with Spain and Russia take their place. Romania also now miss out on what would have been their first ever tour to the Pacific Islands and with points deductions finish bottom of the REC forcing them to play a relegation playoff with Portugal later in the year.

June: With their tour cancelled the only internationals for Romania in June are two matches for Romania A against England Counties under Thomas Lièvremont who had been lineout consultant during the REC. They lose both matches 40-5 and 31-20.

August: The IRPA reports "many players including internationals have not been paid for months and morale is low". This is later confirmed by a Facebook post from Jack Umaga.

September: Suffer an abysmal and embarrassing World Rugby U20 Trophy on home turf, conceding 182 points in matches against Namibia, Hong Kong, & Canada finishing last with a humiliating 71-14 defeat. Later in the month Thomas Lièvremont is appointed head coach full time up to the 2023 RWC.

Image may contain: 1 person, standing, beard and outdoor
Thomas Lièvremont lasted just 3 matches
into a 5 year contract as head coach
November: Make sure of their REC place against a weak Portugal side, but then with a weakened pack are easily beaten by the USA, and lose to Uruguay for the first time with an intercept pass on the 28th phase of the last play. Also say goodbye to one of their top players of the past decade in Oyonnax flanker/lock Valentin Ursache who retires from international rugby after a 14 year career with the Oaks.

December: After just three matches into a 5 year contract Lièvremont departs following disagreements with the FRR over a future vision and members of his staff ending the year on a shambolic note both on and off the field. Meanwhile in preparation for next year's U20s start with a 70-6 loss to Spain in a friendly.

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