After easily securing top spot beating USA in RWC qualifying, Canada have gone a torrid run of form, with 11 straight losses to top 18 ranked nations. Here is a look at some of the factors behind that.
An emphasis on 7's may have come with the benefit of allowing numerous Canadians to become fully professional rugby players. The problem is though that it is a different sport to the 15 man code, requiring a different skillset, with more and more separation between the different codes is opening up.
For example, Scarlets flanker James Davies returned from a 7's stint, and was then told he needed a spell of conditioning at the start of last season as he'd become too lightweight playing the abbreviated code and not in shape for high level professional rugby.
The 7's/XV's divide might be manageable for maybe just a couple of players, particularly in a position like wing. But in Canada, a considerable proportion of the squad's domestic based talent in the backline and loose forwards, is playing on the 7's circuit.
So every time Canada come together as a XV's squad. A number of players including starting openside flanker John Moonlight, scrum half Phil Mack, centre Ciaran Hearn, plus other members of the squad such as fly halves Harry Jones and Nathan Hirayama or centre Conor Trainor, come into the team off the back of having played a completely different game for the past few months.
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| Nathan Hirayama, John Moonlight and Phil Mack celebrating a 7's win at the Pan-American Games. They were later in the starting lineup in the XV's code to face Samoa, despite having played minimal game time in the full version. |
A few of those names actually missed the preparation stage of the PNC to play 7's in the Pan-American Games, a competition where some of the opposition was the likes of Guyana, Brazil and Chile. They were pretty much made unselectable for the opening match against Japan as a result.
That's a not inconsiderable chunk of the squad, that may be conditioned towards 7's, and also coming into the side in important positions off the back of little recent XV's game time.
Nobody would expect a team that had been playing Rugby League all season to fit right in at 7, 9, 10 or 13 after months out of the Union game, yet that's essentially what's asked of the 7's players.
Muddling players between the different codes at this now relatively late stage in RWC preparation, is an approach completely different to any other nation.
While members of the Canadian squad were playing 7's against Guyana, by contrast all the RWC pool rivals had zero players relevant to XV's playing 7's and were already working hard getting ready and fit in camp. Canada in terms of conditioning, time together as a squad, will be playing catch up in that regard.
Over the 2016-19 quad, Canada rugby really needs to address this issue, and think carefully about how they deal with the 7's/XV's divide. It can't be helping the side at the moment.
Scrum
Both North American sides have been the two worst scrummaging nations in the top 20 of world rugby. They have tended to struggle against nearly every opponent, apart from when they play each other.
Since the engagements were changed in 2013, in matches against RWC qualified nations, between them they've conceded 99 points directly from scrum penalties or pushovers, while only gaining 15 (and all of USA's points gained were against Canada).
In Canada's case, whilst not having conceded the quantity of penalties the USA have. They have the lowest success rate of winning their own scrum ball of any Tier 2 nation. The lowest rate of managing to turnover opposition ball. And a -46 point differential between points gained directly from the scrum, and points lost.
The scrum can be pinpointed as a pivotal reason behind the two recent defeats to Romania, where Jason Marshall and Andrew Tiedemann have been simply toyed with by Mihai Lazar. The Oaks won 12 points directly from the scrum in winning 18-9 last November.
It can also be pinpointed as to the reason as to why the early 15-3 lead against Tonga fell apart. Or why the lead against Japan last year fell apart. The scrum coughed up 6 points early on in a tight match against Scotland. Or other matches going back to the old laws, such as Italy in 2012.
A lot of the Canadian side has improved under Kieran Crowley since 2008, but one thing that's never been fixed is the scrum. Indeed Canada could have arguably had beaten both Scotland and Italy in the past 3 years if it wasn't such a disaster zone.
Despite that though, bizarrely Crowley actually claimed the scrum had been, excluding the matches against Romania, 'very good' over the past 2 years.
He then went on to talk about 'the philosophy in the scrum between the north and the south', talking of 'potential for a very boring situation' that's 'surely not World Rugby will want'.
Those comments more or less also revealed what is probably Crowley's own attitude towards the scrum. 'A very boring situation' and something that isn't his perhaps his major focus. Calling a scrum that cumulatively has directly lost -46 points in the past 2 years 'very good' is a certainly strange way of looking at things anyway.
It is one of the weakest around, made up with converted back rower types at both hooker and tighthead. Both who, despite being useful in the loose, look terribly uncomfortable scrummaging.
(Video: Converted hooker Aaron Carpenter, here seen just standing up and
conceding a free kick, has not looked happy and to be enjoying scrums)
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| Canada's nemesis Mihai Lazar will have enjoyed watching them fumble their way through the PNC. |
Similarly Jason Marshall, who's ended up popping out of the scrum numerous times, often in rather embarrassing fashion (including once by his own teammate Hubert Buydens in an ITM Cup match), also said in the past he 'hated' scrummaging when he converted from flanker.
Unfortunately for Canada, they have been drawn a pool including three Latin sides at the RWC. All of whom, unlike Crowley, will likely not find the prospect of scrummaging against the Canucks as 'a very boring situation'. Mihai Lazar will be like a kid at Christmas if he sees '3 Andrew Tiedemann' on the teamsheet again.
Injury
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| One of Canada's most accomplished players DTH van der Merwe only started 8 of the last 20 internationals. Most experienced forward Jamie Cudmore only started 6. Jeff Hassler only 10, Phil MacKenzie only 3, Taylor Paris only 7 in what has been an unsettled backline. |
Last year, DTH van der Merwe required his second shoulder surgery since the 2011 World Cup. Matt Evans sat out the year with a broken leg. Phil MacKenzie had his time at Sale wrecked with injuries. Phil Mack missed November following knee surgery, Harry Jones also missed last November injured.
Liam Underwood sat out a lot of the year with concussion. Taylor Paris missed November with injury, and hasn't played for Canada since going off early against Scotland with concussion. Conor Trainor was somewhat derailed by a broken leg in 2013 as well.
Tyler Ardron was only gently returning to action with 40 minute stints last November after an ankle injury. The most impressive player of the year Jeff Hassler badly damaged knee ligaments late on vs Romania, and also missed a lot of 2013. Lock Jamie Cudmore has also missed plenty of matches for Canada, and there were also recent suggestions doubting whether he'll be ready for the RWC due to concussions (although more positive news on that front now).
2011 World Cup squad members Adam Kleeberger and Ryan Hamilton have also retired completely through constant injury over the past year.
The list is long, and perhaps at it's worst in 2013, where Canada played Ireland after tough match against Tonga that left several players bruised and battered, and ended up with nearly as many absentees through injury as the Irish had Lions missing.
Extremely rarely does any side have 100% availability, and injuries are part of the sport all teams will have had to deal with. But there is also no doubt Canada have been a side that's really struggled with them relative to rivals, with such a wide range of players having suffered injury at some point and especially important players like Cudmore and Van der Merwe starting under 50% of their matches over the past 2 years.
Rotation
Canada have a number of backs who are highly versatile, and whilst this can be a useful thing, it has also seen the selectors almost continually switching their positions.
DTH van der Merwe has switched between 13, to 14, to 11, to 15 back to 11 again. And unless Crowley is planning on dropping either Taylor Paris or Jeff Hassler, then Van der Merwe will likely move yet again at the RWC.
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| Connor Braid has played 4 different positions for Canada over the past 2 years. One of a few of the backline who has been moved around a lot. |
Phil MacKenzie played 11, 12, back to 11, and more recently 14 on his return to the side. Matt Evans has worked his way from 10, to 11 to 14, to 15. Conor Trainor switches between 13 to 14 or 11 nearly every time he pulls on the jersey. Connor Braid has moved from 10, to 15, to 14 to 12, back to 10, now back to 12. Harry Jones looked like he was seen as a 10, then was shifted to 12, back to 10, now is being seen as a 15.
There has been little continuity and pattern to the selection. Some of that is through injuries and availability, but also do with selection too. Since the last World Cup (25 tests), nobody has worn any of the number 9 to 14 shirts for more than 4 matches consecutively. At 11, 12 and 14, no player has held that jersey for a longer stretch than 3 straight matches. Ciaran Hearn at centre has been the only constant member of the backline over the past 2 years.
Not just in the backline, but in the overall squad over the past year, numerous alterations have continually made over the past year, with Crowley talking up the need to use a 31 man squad at the RWC and experimenting a lot.
That has not been beneficial results wise. Against the USA last year, he replaced 4 players including star wing Jeff Hassler at half time, and also took Ardron off early in the second half.
That's the sign of a coach who wanted to give a game to a few more players, rather than wanted to go all out for the win, and Canada ended up losing another decent lead. And that rotation and experimentation with combinations has continued over the year before the RWC.
Whether the rotation in view of the RWC, particularly in this recent PNC tournament, ahead of simply fielding the best team in every game and going just for the wins, possibly lifting morale of fans and the team heading into the RWC, was a wise decision remains to be seen.
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| Coach Kieran Crowley has rotated his team a lot this past year to try and build depth for the RWC, but a run of losses has put pressure on him to deliver and justify that policy. |
But considering most of the past 12 months has been geared towards the RWC, whilst losses have stacked up, lots of pressure is now on Crowley to justify some of that constant tinkering which has played a role in some of the losses with performances at the tournament. Especially with certain sites such as BC Rugby News already running an anti-Crowley campaign full of ill informed judgements of his work.
Possibly as a result of all those different combinations being played, and the fact the set piece was the worst in the PNC this year, the backline simply has not been able to gel as a unit, and looked disorganised at times, despite talented players as individuals. Against Japan, with a 9 and 10 playing together at international level for the first time, and a 12 and 13 just for the second time. Passes went on the floor, into touch or to the opposition 16 times.
The most recent performance against the USA, was exactly the sort of performance the Romanians or Italians will have enjoyed watching from Canada.
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| GIF: Throwing offloads under the shadow of your own posts and dropping the ball, as was done here by a player who had been playing 7's all year, would if repeated against a side at the RWC who can scrum, be one of the most stupidly dangerous plays possible. Romania would certainly back themselves for 7 points. |
Luck
Despite the negative mood around Canadian rugby fans at the minute and the losing run of matches. The losses should be put in context. There have been no blowouts at all, and over half of them have only been decided in the final few minutes, or in the final minute on more than one occasion.
It was not that long ago that Canada probably should have beaten 6 Nations side Scotland. With only a late red card against Jebb Sinclair, a call from the referee that split opinion, ruining the position they had set up for a winning penalty.
Compare that with 2008, where in an early stage of rebuilding after coming off a poor RWC, Canada lost 41-0 to Scotland at the end of a 'Tour of Hell' to the Celts.
They've also lost to Samoa in rather unfortunate circumstances, where having led for majority of the match, a mix up late on led to an offside penalty and a 5 metre lineout. That Canada pinched only to see the ball ricochet into Zak Taulafo's path to score. Things like that just haven't been going Canada's way of late.
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| GIF: Canada's losing run was extended as Samoa got a remarkably fluky try to win in the final seconds at BMO Field last Wednesday. |
There are many doomsayers who are portraying this run of defeats as a terminal decline, the lowest point ever reached, and Canadian rugby on the way out, citing the bogus point about a low in teh meaningless rankings. That is nonsense, and some have short memories and forget the state Canada was in 2007/08.
It is undeniable that Canada have played some total garbage rugby lately, particularly last November, and the first and last matches of the PNC. In the short term, the form book is not in their favour for the RWC, and the prospect of facing four strong European scrummaging sides isn't a cause for optimism. No doubt after the RWC, some tweaks to the system will need to be looked at, particularly the 7's issue.
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| Tyler Ardron, still only 24 years old, has come off a good season with the Ospreys, and looks set to play a pivotal role in leading Canadian rugby for the next decade or so. |
But longer term, there is plenty of decent young talent in the group. Tyler Ardron is still only 24 and already growing in an impressive player, still a few years off his peak. His clubmate Jeff Hassler is only 23. Connor Braid and Taylor Paris despite making their debuts years back are still only 25 and 22 respectively.
23 year old lock Cam Pierce will play Top 14 rugby next season. 21 year old former Leicester academy player Djustice Sears-Duru so far looks an interesting prospect at loosehead prop. They have also outperformed certain other nations at U20 level as well this year.
There is a talent to be worked with in Canadian rugby. This is more of a dire run of form, due to the various circumstances, rather than any worrying longer term decline away from the top 18 to Uruguay/Namibia level.
Suggestions that's the case are well wide of the mark, and Canada are still going to be around in 2019. And with kinder injury luck, more coherent selection and a better settled team, dual 7's and XV's players being reduced, possibly some fresh ideas within the coaching team, there is hope they could quickly turn it around and be an improved force compared to what they will be at this upcoming tournament.
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