Failure of Mike Tolkin regime obvious before doomed RWC

Despite the pre-RWC optimism, it had been clear for at least 2 years beforehand that a win at the tournament would be unlikely and that the Mike Tolkin era was destined to fail.

One of the failures of the USA rugby over the past RWC cycle with Mike Tolkin in charge has been a failure to consider any of their performances, especially the wins, within context.

USAR CEO Nigel Melville said he
had thought the team was 'on track'
to achieve at the RWC based on a few
matches against weakened PNC sides.

A recent interview with the man right at the top of USAR, Nigel Melville on Rugby WrapUp, pretty much summed up the sort of logic that was common across certain sections of the US rugby community over the past 2 or 3 years.

It became very clear long before the RWC that the Eagles would struggle to win a game at this year's tournament, at best they had an outside shot at beating Japan.

That's been obvious since precisely 23rd of June 2013 in fact, after the Eagles conceded 6 tries in a comprehensive 38-20 defeat to Japan.

That game was one of the first that showed how the Japanese set piece had improved out of sight and their ability to exploit American weaknesses in the more technical areas of the game. In particular scrum, where Japan scored their first penalty try for many years against serious opposition.

Additionally to the set piece, a gulf in quality between the sides respective half backs was also vast. The Cherry Blossoms scrum half Fumiaki Tanaka, playing behind a well controlled pack owned his opposite number Mike Petri in that match.

When such critical areas of the field there was such a vast chasm between the sides, it would always be very difficult for USA to mount an effective challenge.

GIF: When there is such inferiority in fundamental areas, one notably being set piece,
it was always unlikely the USA were going to beat Japan, who had already beaten them
easily home and away comfortably in 2013 and 2014.

A year later playing in Carson, the gulf was even more obvious, when it became clear Japan could not just beat the USA comfortably, but could do so without even being at their best and despite gifting the Eagles several soft tries. The 39-27 scoreline flattered the USA in a game that could have easily finished something like 45-10.

Beating Samoa was an equally predictable result. Tolkin went 0-8 against the Pacific Islanders over his time in charge, and a couple months prior to the RWC, the Samoans had beaten a full strength (bar Samu Manoa) Eagles side in their own backyard, with a significantly weakened side coming right off a gruelling long haul flight.

It was pointed out at the time that lots was in USA's favour to pick up their first ever win over Samoa in that match. If they couldn't manage it there, then it would the chances of them managing it against a stronger better prepared Samoan side at the RWC itself were slim.

Predictably, a jetlagged weakened Samoan side were absolutely shot after about 35 minutes in that game and were there for the taking, but the USA failed to weather on early burst or capitalise on that late on and fell short.

That wasn't a good result at all for the Eagles given the advantageous circumstances, yet it was generally seen as an acceptably decent result.

Melville said he felt his team was 'on track' after ending up close in that game, and also after the narrow win over a half strength Japan team in a tournament Eddie Jones had branded a 'training session' with specifically that match against their future RWC opponents in mind.

You can only beat what's in front of you, but really there was nothing from that game that would have significantly really worried Japan, other than perhaps the breakdown threat of Andrew Durutalo who had a standout year for someone with not too much experience in 15s.

Also cited by Melville were the wins over Canada, who were also an opponent who this year in the build up to the World Cup heavily rotated their team and were not at full strength.

This is somewhat of a theme with USA under Mike Tolkin. From his wins against the top 18 nations in the world, with the exception of Romania (who found the Eagles to be a major bogey team over this RWC cycle), there are not many against sides when they are near full strength.

The only other one was Georgia in 2013, and that was not a game where the USA legitimately outplayed an opponent, but rather one that ranks (alongside Romania vs Tonga and Scotland vs Australia) as one of the flukiest wins of the past 4 years.

The USA's 2015 RWC related series
of matches was a disaster from start
to finish, and even Uruguay forced
them to sweat in their two leg playoff.

When you look at the gauge of the RWC series of matches (ie games where sides will usually be at full strength), the results that most would consider the most important, then there is a tale of failure from start to finish.

Comprehensively beaten and outplayed by Canada in 2013 (and losing the chance for an easier pool). But even more worrying was struggling past a considerably less talented and mostly amateur Uruguay side.

Then finally the disappointing RWC campaign, that featured no losing bonus point, and the humiliation of suffering the worst defeat of the tournament, and generally continued the theme that when Tolkin faced a full strength team in a game of importance he would fall short.

It was in March last year, following the debacle against Uruguay centred around one of the worst selections of a front row seen in international rugby, where there were serious red flags about Tolkin's competency to take the USA to the RWC.

Former captain Todd Clever was
kicked out of the RWC squad after
falling out with Tolkin, who
disingenuously claimed it was a
decision based on playing merit.

The stories that came out of the camp from Todd Clever of him running the team like it was still high school. Along with Takudzwa Ngwenya also being forced to serve detention, and the utterly dishonest explanations that selections of clearly inferior players like Matt Trouville or Tim Maupin ahead of them also put huge doubts on his ability to manage an international squad.

Reality was, despite Tolkin's success as Xavier High School and NYAC, he simply ended up being not well equipped enough to manage and coach in international rugby.

In the international game the skill is to blend and manage to get the best out of players with numerous different backgrounds and characters. You can't mould the squad towards your own image and that's a key difference to club rugby.

Tolkin was not retained as USA head
coach following the World Cup.

Yet Tolkin would stick to the safety of those from the same background of clubs, notably NYAC, and stuck loyally by the sometimes gaffe prone Mike Petri to the extent of not even naming another scrum half in the squad, whilst deeming the alternative Robbie Shaw a character not to his liking.

There was a core of 10-12 players in this USA squad that was better on paper than anything else the Eagles have taken to a RWC before, and little progress was made.

It was simple common sense not to renew Tolkin's contract. We've now had two consecutive RWC cycles of, for differing reasons, complete duds in the role of USA head coach. That has arguably one of the biggest failures of USAR in recent times, despite the fact that off the field and in various other areas significant progress has been made. The role carries numerous challenges relative to rivals, and finding the right man for the next cycle is vital.