Six examples of how RWC has powered rugby's global growth

Major changes to the hierarchy of international rugby generally occur at a glacial speed. However it is worth looking at some of the biggest success stories of where increases in growth and popularity have happened outside the "foundation Unions" (made up of the old Five Nations and Tri Nations) from over the past 20 or so years.

A common theme in each of these examples is that every single one illustrates the pivotal role the World Cup has had in driving of the sport's growth and expansion in new areas.   

Argentina (1999 & 2007)

Argentina, just like most of the Five Nations, suffered their record heaviest defeat in the early professional era period (where SANZAR professionalised earlier) when in 1997 an amateur side got thrashed 93-8 by New Zealand. It was obvious mostly amateur players would no longer compete with these teams.

Fortunately though a special generation of Argentines born 1973-77 would all emerge at roughly the same time and form the core of the team for the next three World Cups. (Agustín Pichot, Mario Ledesma, Felipe Contepomi, Rodrigo Roncero, Martín Scelzo, Ignacio Fernández Lobbe, Gonzalo Longo, Diego Albanese, Ignacio Corleto, Manuel Contepomi).

Prior to 1999, Los Pumas had disappointingly only won 1 out 9 of their previous RWC games (vs Italy in 1987). This generation changed that. Upsetting Ireland to reach the quarter finals for the first time and firmly putting Argentine rugby on the world map. In the 18 months or so afterwards, the squad was transformed from only having two or three professional players to nearly an entire team playing at a high level in France or England.

Argentina shock France in the opening game of RWC 2007

That first stage of growth led to the second stage when a more experienced team showed up at RWC 2007 and did even better. In a "pool of death" with #1 and #2 of that year's Six Nations, Los Pumas shocked France in the opening game of their home World Cup, then swept aside Ireland to top the pool, and went onto reach the semi finals and win the bronze medal.

Argentina had achieved some big results before (they had beaten all the Six Nations over that four cycle including an away win at Twickenham). However it was this World Cup that captured the public imagination of the country like never before. It was in this tournament this generation confirmed a legacy for future growth.

This is shown today by how the sport has spread across the country. In 2007, 26 of the 30 man squad were from Buenos Aires. Now 13 of the 23 that beat the All Blacks, and all 7 try scorers in their recent record win over the Wallabies, were from other parts of the country. Both those matches were in the Rugby Championship, where the overdue Argentine inclusion was another legacy from that generation's achievement.

Georgia (2007)

To understand how much Georgian rugby has evolved. It always worth going back to this description from The Guardian of their team at the 2003 World Cup.

There was a buzz of excitement in the Georgia camp last week as they rounded off their final training runs at La Grande Motte on the shores of the Mediterranean in southern France.

At last, the 30 members of Georgia's World Cup squad were to receive their first official piece of equipment: tracksuits, paid for by their coach, the Frenchman Claude Saurel, and the other team officials, who had all chipped in to ensure that the players would have at least one piece of equipment in common before they arrived in Australia.

The former Béziers coach and Languedoc winegrower has also forked out for a video camera, computer and tape machine in an attempt to replicate the sophisticated analysis systems now used by major international teams.

"We are light years behind teams like England or France but we realise there is nothing much we can do about it," confided Gregoire Yachvili, the Georgian flanker whose brother, Dimitri, is the scrum-half for France.

"There is no point in our getting obsessed by the logistical and financial difficulties; we just have to get on and do our best. We might not have any tackle-bags, we have no body armour and we have to borrow a scrum machine, but we've got a ball, we've got a pitch to play on, and two teams of players... What else do you need to train for a game of rugby?"

Even more disastrous for the Georgians has been the ad hoc nature of their build-up. A training camp in the mountains of Georgia and a two-match tour of Canada were reluctantly cancelled in July for financial reasons.

At this point Georgian rugby had almost nothing but got by just from natural talent and predisposition for the rough and tumble of the sport along with the helpful generosity of coach Claude Saurel (who used his contacts to first open the doors for Georgian players to play in France - initially in lower leagues but gradually more in higher teams).

Georgia powering to their first RWC win in 2007

Still going in to RWC 2007 there were reports of only eight pitches in the country. But this tournament was a turning point where they most famously came ever so close beating Ireland (indeed they really should won that match). They were also only 6-3 behind vs Argentina at 45 minutes, and resoundingly recorded their first RWC win 30-0 vs Namibia.

It was after this the Georgian government and politicians took notice and started to support the side. In particular from 2008 the Cartu Foundation started investing heavily in improving infrastructure. This enabled the new generation of young kids inspired by Gorgodze to play the sport to enjoy facilities a world apart from what the earlier players in the 2000s had.

The result is Georgia is now one of the leading producers of young talent outside "Tier 1", and have established themselves as the top side of the REC, with a far stronger, more skilled, and professional group of players many of which now star in Top 14 or Pro D2.

Portugal (2007)

Heading into their first World Cup back in 2007. Portugal were supposed to be the exemplar of a team World Rugby wanted to boot out as they planned to cut the tournament back to 16 teams for 2011.

BBC Sport's tournament preview listed their weaknesses as "pretty much everything" and that "hopefully the mismatches they face will not end in serious injury". In The Guardian veteran BBC radio commentator Iain Robertson argued passionately against their presence at the event stating "there is a serious risk to the physical welfare of the Portuguese players" and "it will be an embarrassment for rugby". This was a commonly repeated sentiment at the time among journalists.

Portugal's passionate anthem singing at RWC 2007

In the end whilst they did suffer the largest defeat of that tournament (108-13 against a ruthless all time great All Blacks team), the team won over many spectators with the passion and heart they showed despite their limitations, and their fans in the stands never stopped cheering for them throughout the match. Every single Portuguese player and staff still reflects back on the match as an amazing experience.

Also despite being given least rest time of any team in the tournament they competed above expectation in other matches. They were only 16-5 down to Italy after 65 minutes before fading and conceding two late tries, and led Romania for 71 minutes before losing 14-10 to another late try.

They defied those predictions of how their matches could be "an embarrassment for rugby" and many fans enjoyed watching them play and now argued in favour of keeping sides like them in the tournament. More importantly, their efforts also led to an immediate surge of interest in the sport at home, with large numbers of more kids turning up to play.

Although in the following years they dropped down the rankings, reaching a low in 2016 with relegation from the REC, the legacy of that 2007 World Cup team lived on. As around 10 years later many of those kids who were inspired to take up the sport around that time became part of the growth of Portuguese youth rugby which started performing well above its senior ranking and nearly reaching promotion to the U20 Championship.

A number of those U20 players from 2017-19 were quickly promoted to the senior team, and along with some added French experience, now form the basis of one of the most exciting young teams on the "Tier 2" scene, and who in the past year have nearly upset Japan, Georgia, Italy, and were within 10 seconds of qualifying directly for the RWC ("nearly" is a word they will be so desperate not to hear again this November in the Repechage). 

Japan (2015)

The interest in Japanese rugby had long dwindled in the modern era. When in 2009 they were awarded hosting rights to the 2019 World Cup, there was some concern about whether they could fill the grounds for all the smaller matches. Unless a "Tier 1" team came to visit (which was rare - Japan did not host them a single "Tier 1" test between 2005 and 2013), crowds were usually very modest for their usual Pacific Nations Cup matches.

The moment that changed Japanese rugby forever

Then everything changed in September 2015 when Japan shocked the world with the biggest upset in World Cup history against the Springboks. After many years of humiliation against the leading teams on the big stage, Japanese rugby became an overnight sensation and interest instantly boomed with the Brave Blossoms matches attracting some huge TV viewing figures.

A hypothetical win over South Africa in a friendly outside the World Cup would have been equally shocking, but the magnitude of the enormous effect it had on the Japanese public was so much more for the result coming at the sport's showpiece event when the entire world's attention on that match.

If you ever play the match of your life and stage a monumental upset. It is always best to do it on the world stage with every rugby fan watching. One huge match at a World Cup can change everything and leave a legacy.

Not everything has necessarily been perfect in capitalising on that success. but regardless the level of interest remains miles above what it was before 2015 and that momentous match in Brighton, and in the end nobody needed to have worried about the World Cup as the Japanese crowd enthusiastically packed every stadium for every match.

The impact of this match (followed by the repeated heroics at their home RWC four years later) could still be felt more further down the road if the increase in young kids inspired to start rugby as a result of it later brings its benefits to senior level.   

Uruguay (2015)

Uruguay's win over Russia in 2014 has ended up
being significant for all of South American rugby

Uruguay reached the World Cup in 1999 and 2003, but it was their return to the tournament after defeating Russia in 2014 that led to major growth and change to the sport in the country. Indeed that match in Montevideo may be one of the most significantly important matches in South American rugby history.

Heading into RWC 2015 they proudly talking of their amateur status. Afterwards, with the unlocked funding and ambition they gained from the tournament, they launched a new era under coach Esteban Meneses.

This involved leading players signing up to a more professional High Performance system and better schedule of matches. Although it was not all plain sailing (they had miserable November tours in 2016 and 2018), they arrived at the 2019 World Cup a far better prepared outfit having qualified without needing to go through the Repechage and beaten all the four national teams in the now defunct Americas Rugby Championship that year.

Los Teros played three of the same opponents (Wales, Australia, Fiji) in 2019 as they did in 2015. In every match they were more competitive than they had been four years earlier. Improving from an 166-27 aggregate score against them to an 107-53 aggregate score. This of course included their all time best ever result with the upset vs Fiji.

That improved level Uruguay showed in 2019 would never have been possible if they hadn't qualified beating Russia in 2014 first. Their success then added to the entire South American rugby ecosystem and with that came another bonus bit of growth as well.

If Uruguay didn't reach RWC 2015 it is far less likely the new South American domestic league SLAR would have launched in 2020, and if that league had not launched it is likely Chile would never have been able to obtain a more professional High Performance system of their own, and without that their defeat of the USA to become the biggest surprise qualifier in recent World Cup history would not have likely been possible. 

USA (1999-2019)

This case is a bit different to all the others mentioned here. USA Rugby is far from at its highest point, and cannot be said to have made the level of progress some may have hoped. There is a good chance they may even not qualify for the World Cup next year.

Would USA's historic win over Scotland have
happened if they had missed RWCs for over 20 years?

However they are still a success story of the World Cup in that it has prevented decline as much as helped growth. To understand this you need to ask yourself a counterfactual. What would the state of USA Rugby look like today if the tournament had never expanded and remained at 16 teams and Canada kept the Eagles out of the event for over 20 years? (2019 was the first time USA beat Canada to take the Americas qualifying spot).

My guess is that they would probably be about several years behind where they are now. The Major League Rugby project would be not yet be in existence. Nor would have they got that historic win over Scotland in 2018. And probably can forget about the plan for them to host the World Cup in 2031. Rugby League may have even seen an opportunity to attempt targeting them as a region where Union was weaker.

(Similarly when looking at Italy in the Six Nations. They may not have been great, but in the counterfactual world where they were ignored by the Five Nations like Romania in the 1980s, they would have likely fallen to the level of a mid-table REC side and had none of the money to invest in improving their youth which now so looks to promising for a brighter future).

Some have hypothesised World Rugby expanded to 20 teams in 1999 to keep the USA involved after were left out for the first time in 1995. There are no direct quotes saying this was the reason, and there were plans in the 2000s to reduce the format to leave them out again, but if it was the reason it was a sensible one. Now there is a speculation among fans if them missing out again in 2023 will lead WR to hurry up and increase to 24 teams for 2027 not 2031.

Conclusion: RWC is the key driver of the sport's growth and must be understood as investment for the FUTURE not the just the present

Nothing else over the past 20 years has been as consistently proven to significantly grow the sport outside the old Five Nations and Tri Nations sides as the World Cup.

The most important lesson to learn though is the Rugby World Cup is about the future as much as the present. This is relevant to today's discussions over potential expansion to a 24 team tournament.

For much of the 2000s there were frequent discussions over mismatches at the tournament. In 2002 the RFU bid for the 2007 World Cup with a plan to cut it down to 16 teams. That failed as France won the bid and kept the 20 team format, but World Rugby again initially planned to reduce the tournament to 16 for 2011.

Portugal vs Georgia this year would have likely been
of a much lower standard if the short termist RFU had
gotten their way and cut them both out of RWC 2007

We can now see just how disastrously short termist those plans were. If the RFU had won that bid and enacted their plan neither Georgia or Portugal would have been at the 2007 World Cup. The investment since 2008 in Georgian rugby simply would not have happened. Some of those kids who took up rugby in Portugal and now are playing such good rugby for the national team may have never picked up the sport.

RWCs also serve as a good arena for talent to get noticed. For example USA vs South Africa match in 2007 launched two successful pro careers. Chris Wyles, who was unattached and on the verge of quitting rugby, got noticed by Eddie Jones and signed by Saracens. Whilst Takudzwa Ngwenya famously scorched Bryan Habana for one of the best tries in RWC history which led to a move to Biarritz. Both players went on to strengthen the Eagles across three World Cups. If RFU had their way none of that would have happened.

Similarly if they reduced to 16 teams Uruguay would have never qualified in 2015. Much of their progress over the next four year cycle would not have been possible, nor the improvements that spilled over to Chile over this four year cycle.

Even some of the sides that did still reach World Cups may have been negatively effected as the entire "Tier 2" global rugby ecosystem would have been weakened. A side like Japan would have still qualified, but their preparation for each tournament would have suffered from several of their opponents having made less progress.

Thankfully improved performances from "Tier 2" in 2007 changed minds on this issue. Not many talk of reducing to 16 teams any more, but now World Rugby remain wary of increasing to 24 teams for same reasons they were constantly thinking of cutting back to 16 in the 2000s.

It is true that total wipeouts are not desirable and you don't want to see too many. But fans and administrators also need to understand short term pain for long term gain. Georgia needed to first play 2003 to be the side that recently thrashed Scotland at U20 level. Portugal needed to play 2007 to be the exciting team they are today. Uruguay needed to first play 2015 to be more competitive in 2019 and Chile needed that to qualify for 2023.

Stories of growth like these are why World Rugby should stop being overly cautious about increasing to 24 teams for the 2027 World Cup. The tournament is the vehicle that has produced most of the sport's growth over the professional era and they have to think about expanding for the potential pay off in the future and not solely focus on the present.